Hand from Tueday night

Playing 2/1 with an intermediate partner, club MP game, Red vs White

Partner opens 1d in first seat, RHO overcalls 1h, your bid holding:

S: AQT9
H: x
D: Kx
C: AJT9xx

I started with a negative double (Opps pass from now on). Partner bids 1NT, denying 4 card spade support. To show my pattern and strength I now jump to 3c (and still think I'm underbidding....). Parter alerts as NMF, which I ignore and correct after the auction, and bids 3s. Not wanting to be in 4S on a 4-3 fit, I bid 5c, All Pass.

Partner has:

S: Kxx
H: Axxx
D: QJTx
C: Kx

Opening lead is a small heart, won with the Ace. King of clubs, both follow small, small club towards my hand with RHO showing up with the Queen, saving me from the guess. Lay down the King of diamonds to drop the ace, everything's up making 6. Even if partner doesn't go off the rails on NMF, it's a tricky slam to bid, and not one I especially want to be in at MP. I'd rate it about 55%. Strictly speaking, it's a 50% slam, but on the auction it has to be a slight favorite to be held by my RHO.

Playing the Canape system, the hand would be bid as follows:

1NT (1) - 2c (2)
2H - 3c (3)
3NT (4) - 4c (5)
4h(6) - 4s (7)
5c(8) - 5d(9)
6c
(1) - 12+ to 15
(2) - Stayman (The system DOES follow the standard in one or two places ;))
(3) - Natural and forcing. 4 spades and 5+ clubs, big hand
(4) - To play, in theory
(5) - 6 clubs, not content to stop in 3NT.
(6) - Ace of H
(7) - Ace of S
(8) - To play, or perhaps should be King of Clubs (Need to discuss with my partner)
(9) - Ace or King of Diamonds

This brings up an interesting play problem. If after cashing the King and leading out the small club, RHO follows low instead of revealing her doubleton. The possible distributions of the cards at the beginning are:

1. - Qxxxx
2. x Qxxx
3. xx Qxx
4. xxx Qx
5. xxxx Q
6. Q xxxx
7. Qx xxx
8. Qxx xx
9. Qxxx x
10. Qxxxx -

After the first round the remaining possible cases are:


2. x Qxxx
3. xx Qxx
4. xxx Qx
8. Qx xxx
9. Qxx xx
10. Qxxx x

Once RHO plays low to the second trick the possibilities drop to:

2. x Qxxx
3. xx Qxx
8. Qx xxx
9. Qxx xx

So it at first appears to be a 50/50 shot, BUT case 9 is clearly helpless as either the finessee or drop loses the Q, so the correct play IS to finessee, which wins cases 2 and 3, loses 8, and case 9 is an always lose.

Will post a link to recaps once they go online.